Analysts at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming released a detailed forecast in September 2026 that places total legal wagers and event contracts for the upcoming NFL season at roughly $40 billion nationwide, and the projection breaks down the contributions from traditional sportsbooks alongside emerging prediction platforms in precise percentages. Regulated operators are expected to manage the bulk of activity while newer contract-based venues expand their footprint through higher trading volumes and increased user engagement right from the opening week of play.

Data compiled by the firm shows regulated sportsbooks handling about 80 percent of the overall total, which translates to $31.7 billion and reflects an approximate 8 percent rise compared with the prior season. That share remains dominant even as alternative venues gain traction, and the figures indicate steady expansion within the established regulatory framework across multiple states.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are projected to capture the remaining 21 percent, equating to $8.4 billion in equivalent contract value for the full season. These platforms operate through event contracts rather than traditional point spreads or moneylines, and early indicators already point to accelerated activity once the schedule begins. Observers note that contract volume and mobile application downloads both climbed noticeably during kickoff week, signaling broader adoption among users who prefer outcome-based trading formats.

The report separates the two segments clearly yet acknowledges that both operate within the same overall legal landscape, and growth in one area does not appear to subtract directly from the other. Instead, the data suggests parallel expansion driven by different user preferences and product features. States with mature regulatory structures continue to supply the largest share of sportsbook handle, while prediction markets draw interest from audiences seeking granular event outcomes throughout the season.

Figures from the analysis place the sportsbook component at $31.7 billion for the 2026 campaign, and that total incorporates mobile and retail channels combined. Year-over-year growth of roughly 8 percent aligns with ongoing state-level expansions and improved operational efficiencies at licensed operators. Those who track handle data across jurisdictions report consistent patterns of increased participation once new markets open and existing users gain familiarity with legal options.

App-based betting remains the primary channel for most activity, and integration with live scoring feeds plus promotional structures helps maintain engagement across the 18-week regular season plus playoffs. The projection accounts for both in-game wagers and pre-match activity, and it factors in typical seasonal fluctuations that occur around major holidays and conference championship weekends.

Contract volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi has already demonstrated notable increases during the first week of NFL action, and download metrics for their respective applications reflect heightened interest. These venues allow users to trade shares tied to specific game results or player milestones, and the structure differs from fixed-odds betting in ways that appeal to certain participant groups. Researchers tracking these metrics highlight that liquidity has improved steadily, which in turn supports larger position sizes without excessive price slippage.

The $8.4 billion projection represents an aggregate measure of notional contract exposure rather than traditional handle, and the distinction matters when comparing across market types. Early season data indicates that trading activity concentrates around high-profile matchups, yet participation also extends to mid-tier games as users explore additional contract categories. Those monitoring platform statistics observe that retention rates remain elevated when users can access multiple resolution events within a single game day.

State-by-state breakdowns within the report reveal that markets with established regulatory regimes contribute the largest absolute dollar amounts, while newer jurisdictions add incremental volume as licensing processes conclude. The overall national total of $40 billion incorporates these differences and projects continued but measured growth as additional states finalize rules. Legal frameworks in place since the 2018 Supreme Court decision continue to shape where operators can accept wagers and how prediction platforms structure their offerings.

Event contracts fall under separate oversight in several states, and the report notes that regulatory clarity has supported the observed uptick in contract trading. Observers point out that both segments benefit from transparent rules that protect participants and ensure tax collection, and the combined projection reflects those stable conditions. Data collected through September 2026 already incorporates initial results from the season opener, providing a real-time anchor for the full-year estimates.

The Eilers & Krejcik Gaming forecast supplies a clear numerical framework for expected activity across both traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets during the 2026 NFL season. With regulated operators positioned to handle $31.7 billion and prediction platforms projected at $8.4 billion, the combined $40 billion total illustrates the scale of legal wagering now operating under state oversight. Early indicators from kickoff week, including contract volume and app downloads, align with the broader growth trajectory outlined in the analysis. Those reviewing the figures can track subsequent updates as the season progresses and more granular data becomes available through the same research channels.